There are still three games left in the regular season, but barring a complete surprise, we already know Guyer will be the No. 1 seed in the Class 6A Division II bracket out of District 6-6A, meaning the Wildcats would face the 2-seed in the Division II bracket from District 5-6A.
There’s just one problem. While 6-6A is pretty clear-cut, 5-6A is still a complete jumbled mess.
Here are the current standings in District 5-6A, along with enrollment figures for each school. Of course, the top two enrollments from each district’s playoff qualifiers go Division I, while the smaller two go Division II. I’ll also include the remaining schedules for each team.
Southlake Carroll (2,691) — 4-0: TC Nelson, L.D. Bell, Hebron
Hebron (3,454) — 3-1: Trinity, Lewisville, Carroll
Euless Trinity (3,378) — 2-2: Hebron, Flower Mound, FM Marcus
Flower Mound Marcus (3,317) — 2-2: Flower Mound, TC Nelson, Trinity
Flower Mound (3,541) — 2-2: FM Marcus, Trinity, Lewisville
Trophy Club Nelson (2,632) — 2-2: Carroll, FM Marcus, L.D. Bell
Lewisville (4,379) — 1-3: L.D. Bell, Hebron, Flower Mound
Hurst L.D. Bell (2,951) — 0-4: Lewisville, Carroll, TC Nelson
Hebron and Trinity are bolded because if the season ended today, those would be the two Division I representatives, and Guyer would host Flower Mound Marcus in the first round of the playoffs. But as you can tell, there’s still a lot that has to play out in this district.
Now, just for grins, let’s try to play out the rest of the season for all of these teams and project final district records. Since I am in a tight race for top spot in The Dallas Morning News high school pick ‘em this year (Humble brag!), I think you can trust these prognostications.
Southlake Carroll, 7-0
FM Marcus, 4-3
Flower Mound, 3-4
TC Nelson, 3-4
L.D. Bell, 0-7
So, after all that, it looks like if I’m correct, it will, indeed be Hebron and Trinity that go Division I and leave Guyer to host Marcus in the first round of the playoffs. The one wild card here is if Flower Mound beats Marcus in the Mound Showdown this week, which isn’t only a rivalry game but now is a huge game for playoff implications.
If Flower Mound does beat Marcus and ends up bumping the Marauders out of the playoffs, Flower Mound goes Division I and bumps Trinity down to Division II. If that happens, Trinity would come to C.H. Collins for a first-round playoff game between two of the most physical programs in DFW.
Is it the most likely scenario? No. But is it definitely possible? Yeah, it is.
Basically, I can say with great confidence, Guyer will either be hosting Marcus or Trinity in the first round, and either way it’s going to be a 2-hour game because all three of those teams like to run the ball, and run it often. For a sports writer who deals with deadlines, that is awesome news.
If Guyer moves on past that first-round game, the Wildcats would likely draw Cedar Hill, which is a team that has been on really high highs this year and also hit some really low lows. One thing we do know about Cedar Hill? They have a lot of trouble stopping the run, and we all know that would play heavily into Guyer’s hands. The Longhorns would score points, but they’d have a tough time stopping Noah Cain and Myron Mason.
Third round? You’re most likely looking at a rematch with San Angelo Central, which is a vastly improved team this year from the one that pushed Guyer to the brink last year and could finally put a West Texas team deep into the 6A playoffs for the first time in a good while.
However, there is still a pretty decent chance Central goes Division I out of 2-6A. The last two spots in that district are still very much up for grabs between three teams: Wolfforth Frenship, Amarillo Tascosa and Midland Lee. If Lee gets in, Central goes Division II. If Lee is left on the outside looking in, Central goes Division I.
Get past the Bobcats, and you’re looking at a rematch with DeSoto, which of course, beat Guyer 51-17 in Week 2 behind Guyer’s former quarterback, Shawn Robinson.
We’re getting way ahead of ourselves now, but I hope this helps a little bit. Guyer is a program built for deep playoff runs, which is proven by its playoff history of eight straight years of making the playoffs with two second-round exits and the other six going at least four rounds deep. Pay close attention to that Mound Showdown at Flower Mound on Friday night, it will be huge for Guyer’s playoff scenario.