In the jumbled mess that is District 5-4A baseball, there’s one thing we know — well, two things. One, Wichita Falls Rider, at 10-3 in district play, has clinched the district title as the regular season wraps up today. Two, that’s all we know and the rest of the district is completely up in the air.
So sit back, put on your thinking cap, and let’s break down what could happen with the remaining three playoff spots that are up for grabs between Guyer, Trophy Club Nelson, Azle and Lake Dallas, with Fort Worth Brewer, Denton and Wichita Falls all eliminated.
Heading into Friday’s finales, Guyer, Nelson and Azle are all tied at 8-5 in district play. Guyer has the best cumulative record against the other two schools having swept Nelson and split with Azle. Lake Dallas, at 7-6, is alone in fifth place.
Tonight’s games that have a bearing on this: Nelson-Denton, Guyer-Brewer, Lake Dallas-Azle.
Read on to see what all could happen pending the results of said games.
Scenario 1: Nelson beats Denton, Guyer beats Brewer, Azle beats Lake Dallas
Guyer ends up in second place tied with Nelson but with the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bobcats thanks to their season sweep. Nelson and Azle would play Saturday, and the loser would get the fourth seed. The winner would then play Guyer for the second seed as Guyer would have bye in mini-tournament thanks to season sweep of Nelson.
Scenario 2: Guyer loses, Nelson wins, Lake Dallas wins
There would be a three-way tie for third place between Guyer, Azle and Lake Dallas with a mini-tournament Saturday to decide seeding.
Scenario 3: Guyer loses, Nelson loses, Lake Dallas wins
This is where things get really crazy as there would be a four-way tie (four teams for three spots) between Azle, Lake Dallas, Nelson and Guyer. Guyer would play Lake Dallas Saturday and Azle would play Nelson, thanks to a random draw. The winners of those two games would play for the 2- and 3-seeds, while the losers would play for the fourth seed with one team being on the outside looking in. This is probably the least likely scenario as well as both Guyer and Nelson would have to be upset.
Scenario 4: Guyer wins, Nelson wins, Lake Dallas wins
This seems the most likely and would result in just one game on Saturday between Lake Dallas and Azle (again) for fourth playoff spot. Guyer would be locked in as the No. 2 seed and Nelson would be locked in at No. 3.
Scenario 5: Nelson loses, Guyer wins, Lake Dallas wins
Nelson, Lake Dallas and Azle would be tied for third and play a mini-tournament.
So no matter what, there are going to be extra games on Saturday, it’s just a matter of how many and who’s playing in them. The games will be played at Justin Northwest.