Guyer wins strength of schedule battle with Birdville

Guyer junior quarterback Jerrod Heard (2) runs into the endzone for a touchdown while escaping a tackle from Aledo linebacker Aaron Hinsley, Friday, November 23, 2012, at Northwest I.S.D. Stadium. (MIKE MEZEUL II/SPECIAL CONTRIBUTOR )

I’m going to preface this post by saying this: Birdville is 13-0, and that can’t be taken away from the Hawks. The team can only play who’s on its schedule and when you’re in a mega Fort Worth district you only get a limited number of nondistrict games to choose from.

With that said, wow. Birdville has played what has to be the softest schedule of any team remaining the playoffs.

Sure, Guyer is 11-2, not 13-0. But the Wildcats’ two losses came to Class 5A powers in the first two weeks of the season when Guyer was breaking in nine new defensive starters and gave up 108 points to Cedar Hill (still alive in the 5A Division II playoffs) and Colleyville Heritage.

So let’s look at a breakdown of who the teams have played.

Birdville

Wins over playoff teams: Saginaw Boswell (37-16); Fort Worth Dunbar (42-17); Saginaw (35-14); Azle (55-45); Crowley (45-21); Lubbock Monterey (42-21).

Thoughts: Lake Dallas beat Boswell, 20-0, in the first round. Guyer thrashed Lake Dallas. Guyer turned the ball over three times and beat Saginaw, 42-14. Guyer beat Azle 55-14 after leading 42-0 early in the second quarter.

Guyer

Wins over playoff teams: Azle (55-14); Lake Dallas (63-13); Wichita Falls Rider (21-10); Saginaw (42-14); Aledo (42-30); Amarillo (38-30).

Thoughts: This is impressive and all, but what’s more impressive is the way Guyer played Cedar Hill and Colleyville Heritage early, leading Cedar Hill late into the first half and Heritage into the third quarter before its young, evolving defense got its doors blown off.

If all of this isn’t enough, check out what the folks at Dave Campbell’s Texas Football had to say about this game:

Out of all the undefeated teams left alive in 5A and 4A, none has been more overlooked than Birdville, and yes, I’m holding myself to that criticism as well. Part of it has been the playoff opponents — Birdville, or example, has toppled Azle, Crowley and Lubbock Monterey. Those are good teams, just not would-be title teams like Aledo, or Amarillo … the two squads Guyer just beat. Let’s pull a Nate Silver and go by math for one second. Working by PigSkinPrep.com’s number, which ranks every team in Texas by mathematical formula (not subjective), Birdville has played just one team in the 4A top 50 (Crowley). Guyer, by comparison, has played two teams in the 5A top 26 (including Cedar Hill, who’s still alive), and three teams in the 4A top ten, and they beat all of those 4A teams. What does this all mean? Very little in way of Xs and Os, but it does suggest, by one service’s numbers, that Guyer isn’t going to see anything this weekend it hasn’t seen already at some point. I think the truth is somewhere in between — Birdville is better than the numbers suggest (especially with RB Xavier Turner; 32 total TDs), but Guyer is finally starting to round into the form we predicted way back in the preseason, when it was a state title favorite. The defense can still be a little shaky at times, which is why I think this one will be fairly close, but in the end, I have Guyer winning with the exact score it won with two weeks ago (42-30) and almost the same one as last week (38-30).

The stuff from PigskinPrep.com is really interesting, and for the record, I see something along the lines of 45-24 Guyer. What do you think?

 

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